Technology Roles in an Ecosystem Model of Technology Evolution

We propose a new conceptual model for understanding technological evolution that highlights dynamic and highly interdependent relationships among multiple technologies. We propose that, when technology evolution is discussed, a single technology cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, we argue that technology evolution is best viewed as a dynamic system that includes the totality of interrelated technologies. We build on theories from technological forecasting, technology evolution, and innovation research to develop the concept of a technology ecosystem. By considering the interdependent nature of technology evolution, we identify three roles that technologies play within a technology ecosystem. These roles are components, products and applications, and support and infrastructure. Technologies within an ecosystem interact through these roles and impact technological evolution. We also classify types of interactions between technology roles, which we term paths of influence. The model provides insights for technology development and forecasting. We demonstrate the use of this model through a business minicase on the digital music industry. ______________________________________________________________________________